At a Glance

• Buyer showings are surging. Showings hit a record 23,341 in May, up about 22.6 percent from a year ago and the busiest month on record.
• Sales bounced back. 631 homes sold, up 10.5 percent from April, though still about 7 percent below last May.
• Prices are softer than a year ago. The median sale price was $687,000 (down about 7 percent year over year) and the average was $743,266 (down about 6 percent).
• The market is balanced. Months of supply sat at 4.0, with condos the most buyer-friendly segment at 8.9 months and semi-detached homes the tightest at 1.8.
• Borrowing costs are steady. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 percent, giving buyers a stable planning backdrop.
• Future supply faces a real constraint. A Region of Waterloo water-capacity limit has paused new development approvals across much of Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge, which could tighten the longer-term housing pipeline.

The one thing I am looking at from May is that buyers appear to be coming back out in force - at least in terms of the first step of the buying process.  It could very well be that looking at a bunch of houses that one has no intention of buying is now be a big fad, but assuming that away, this is a good sign.   Buyer showings reached 23,341 in May, up roughly 22.6 percent from a year earlier and the busiest single month in the past 5 years.  That energy did in fact translate into a strong spring bounce in sales.  Concerning is that prices continued to sit below where they were last year. The result is we have a more active, well balanced market where serious buyers have some real choice (and sellers who price correctly are still getting deals done).

Here is a closer look at the numbers for May 2026 and remember:  ALL THE CHARTS ARE INTERACTIVE.

Median Sale Price

The median sale price across all property types came in at $687,000 in May. That is down about 1.9 percent from April and roughly 7.2 percent below the $740,000 we saw in May 2025. Prices have for the most part held in a fairly steady band over the past several months.  Still low but it does gives both buyers and sellers a more predictable footing than the swings of a few years ago.

Average Sale Price

The average sale price was $743,266, down about 5.9 percent from $790,154 a year ago. Average price per square foot tells a similar story, easing to roughly $392 from $422 last May. Again a good position for buyers.  Again this month that difference between the average and the median shows that there are still some pretty big deals behind that separation.

Average Sale Price by Property Type

Looking at median price by home type for May, single family homes sat at $780,000, townhouses at $592,050, semi-detached homes at $607,500 and condos at $388,000. Every segment is down modestly from a year ago, with single family and semi-detached homes seeing the largest year over year adjustments and townhouses holding up best.

Sales

A total of 631 homes sold in May. Despite what is going on the prices, that is up a very healthy 10.5 percent from April.  Perhaps that spike in buyer showings are indeed converting into firm sales. On the other hand, sales are still about 7 percent below last May, so we are not yet back to what I would call peak spring volumes, but the month over month momentum is encouraging heading into summer.  We shall see what happens in June, but do recall July and August typically see a decline until the Fall market hits.

Sales by Property Type

Single family homes led activity with 417 sales, followed by townhouses at 110, condos at 62 and semi-detached homes at 40. Freehold homes continue to do the heavy lifting in our market, while the condo segment remains the quietest corner.

Months of Supply

Months of supply rose to 4.0 in May, up from 3.6 in April and just below the 4.2 we saw a year ago. A reading near four months is still a smidge high - 3 months is more what I like to see in my experience - but is still at least in balanced territory.   

Months of Supply by Property Type

Supply really varies widely by home type. Semi-detached homes are the tightest at just 1.8 months, with single family homes at 3.2, townhouses at 4.7 and condos sitting at 8.9 months. Best advice for Sellers given these number is don't own a condo.  Great news if you own townhouses.   

The Bigger Picture: What Is Shaping Our Market

On the financing side, the Bank of Canada has held its policy interest rate at 2.25 percent, where it has sat since late 2024. Generally speaking stable borrowing costs give buyers a clearer sense of what they can afford and some stability.  This seems to have finally settled into the minds of the market and perhaps is a big part of why showing activity has climbed.  This even with inflation running at 2.8 percent nationally in April and the current oil shock.  This of course is for folks considering variable rates.  For those of you like me with wives who prefer the certainty of mortgage payment, this is not the case for fixed.   If of interest, here are some astonishingly entertaining and riveting reads:      

How the Bond Market Drives Fixed Rates in Ontario

How do banks raise money to fund your mortgage?

Two local trends are also important to keep our eye on: Population growth across Waterloo Region has slowed sharply, while a Region of Waterloo water-capacity limit has paused approvals for many new developments across Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge. Less new construction now can mean tighter supply, and firmer prices, down the road. I covered the development freeze in another post you can find here.  CMHC currently expects average prices to stay roughly flat through 2026 before resuming growth in 2027 and 2028.